A Space4Climate Task Group has produced an exciting prototype climate service that puts trusted Earth Observation data into the hands of climate risk disclosure decision-makers.
The Climate Risk Index from Space Platforms, called ‘CRISP’ was developed initially with Space4Climate funding, and is a dynamic tool suitable for consultants, intermediaries, or financial institutions/ corporates with their own in-house capability.
It was successfully launched at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. Now, thanks to further development by Telespazio UK and Assimila, funded by the UK Space Agency, the CRISP demonstrator is ready for input and feedback. The team are looking to form a partnership to show how bespoke versions can be tailored to the needs of particular areas of interest to financial organisations.
CRISP grew from the Climate Risk Disclosure (CRD) Task Group – just one of Space4Climate’s targeted innovation teams tapping into the expertise of members in the UK Earth Observation for climate community to develop climate services.
Even easier to view climate data from space
Dr Amanda Hall, Chair of the CRD Task Group and of Telespazio UK’s Earth Observation and Climate Services team, says: “CRISP now includes future climate projections to extend the climate indices of extreme temperatures, heavy rain, drought, high winds and sea level into the future. The latest changes to the tool interface have made it even easier to view information based on Earth Observation and climate data.”
Users can select a particular geographic point in Europe to discover historic trends and future projections of key climate indices, which can inform climate risk assessments and investment decisions based on extreme weather events and their likely frequency now and under different climate scenarios. The tool also provides the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) that combines the different climate indices to capture the frequency of extreme events on a monthly basis.
Amanda adds: “We can work with potential customers to make the data applicable to their clientele.”
Joint developers Assimila have produced two strong use-cases, combining the CRISP climate indices with vulnerability and exposure information to develop a climate risk assessment for a specific area of interest. The two use cases are wildfire and agricultural drought risk in the UK.
CRISP probabilistic fire risk model
The CRISP probabilistic fire risk model developed by Assimila for this work is based on statistical relationships between:
- CRISP components (high temperatures, low temperatures, precipitation, drought and wind power)
- EO derived data Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
- Historical satellite-observed wildfire characteristics.
The Assimila wildfire risk model uses six years (2008-2013) of monthly CRISP climate indices, EO data, and fire characteristics and predicts three wildfire characteristics:
- Number of fires
- Average intensity of each fire
- Total burned area
Ancillary datasets were used to generate the risk exposure component, from population density to land cover and land use.
CRISP probabilistic crop yield risk model
CRISP can also focus on the probability of a hazard and its effects on crop yield. To drive a model that can use the CRISP climate indices to explain variability in yield, the CRISP climate indices demonstrate the extreme climate events and their variability with climate change.
Gerardo Lopez-Saldana, Earth Observation Applications Scientist at Assimila, explains: “Heat stress, drought, heavy rain and very strong winds can all impact crop yield. In the context of risk due to climate change, CRISP provides the hazard element.
“The exposure element is given by the field boundaries for every winter wheat field, with the assumption that the whole field will be exposed to the hazard in a given space and time. The vulnerability in this use case assumes that all fields are equally susceptible to damage. The agriculture model uses three years (2018-2020) of monthly CRISP climate indices, NDVI, and yield measurements and predicts crop yield. With this information CRISP can provide a yield outlook for a specific year, a measure of whether yield would be below, average or above previous years.”
These are just two of the ways CRISP can be tailored for particular sectors and locations to identify potential risks from the impact of extreme weather events, which will become more frequent in the future.
Mandatory reporting of climate-based physical risks to assets in the UK – such as drought, high winds, heavy rain – started rolling out in the UK in April 2022, so the development of CRISP is timely.
Growing market that needs quality assured, reliable EO data
Erica Turner, of Earth Observation and Climate Services at Telespazio UK, is secretary of the Task Group. She says: “This is an existing and growing market. What is becoming widely recognised is that there is a lot of data out there but the consultants or intermediaries and financial institutions need access to quality assured, reliable Earth Observation data and that’s where the Task Group members can help.”
Earth Observation data has global coverage and uses the same sensor for all measurements so has benefits over in-situ data, which can be patchy and incomplete. CRISP draws on open access ERA5 reanalysis datasets from ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) combined with ESA (European Space Agency) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Sea Level data and climate projections from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6.
Be part of the next stage – give your feedback
The Task Group now wants to engage with consultants, intermediaries and in-house teams within organisations and financial institutions for the next phase of development, while there is still the flexibility to influence development. They are open-minded as to whether these representatives want to make their own investment into developing a bespoke interface to match their own requirements, or to support in building a case for further development funding.
If you would like a demonstration of CRISP, please email gerardo.lopezsaldana@assimila.eu
To and find out more about being involved in the next phase of CRISP, email Amanda.Hall@telespazio.com